15/04/2021

Expected NEET 2021 cut off in Tamilnadu – Statistical calculation

Expected NEET 2021 cut off for Tamilnadu

 

These days most of the NEET aspirants from Tamilnadu have a unique question in their mind is that What will be the NEET 2021 cut off for Tamilnadu? And also How far the cut off can rise this year?

Knowing the cut off will give them a clue so that how much they can aim for and study accordingly. So here we included all the possible things that affect the NEET 2021 cut off for Tamilnadu and calculated it statistically. All the pieces of information and data are given below collected mainly from the TN Medical Selection website and Quora.

 

Factors determining the NEET cut off 2021

 

  • Total number of candidates appearing for NEET 2021
  • The difficulty level of NEET exam 2021
  • Number of seats available for NEET 2021 aspirants
  • Postponing of NEET 2021

 

1. How many students will appear for next 2021?

The total number of students going to appear from Tamilnadu will place a major role in determining Tamilnadu NEET cut off 2021. Although we all know the total no of candidates appearing for the NEET exam is ascending every year, last year it descended to a small fraction as there is a COVID-19 pandemic. But this year this will be increased to a particular amount for sure as there will be an increase in repeaters this year.

About 83,000 aspirants from Tamilnadu appeared NEET 2017 and 41% of them probably around 33,000 students got qualified.

About 1,07, 288 students appeared NEET 2018, and around 45,336 (39.55%) of them got qualified.

A total of 1,23,078 students appeared in NEET 2019 and 59,785 students got qualified with a pass percentage of 48.57%

In 2020 about 1,21,617 students applied for the exam but due to the postponement of NEET and the COVID-19 pandemic, 25% of the candidates didn’t attend the exams and overall 99,610 students appeared in NEET 2020 out of which 57,215 candidates have qualified, with the pass percentage of 57.44%.

In 2021 candidates total may fall between 1,30,000 to 1,35,000.

 

2. What will be the difficulty level of NEET 2021?

Considering only you, the level of Difficulty or Easiness is purely based on how you prepared or how you are preparing for the NEET.

Suppose, you didn’t prepare well for the exam, you will find the easiest question, the most difficult one. If you prepared pretty well, you can solve the most difficult question in a lesser time. This makes a difference in level.

But in general, If we look at the last two years of NEET exams, the difficulty level of NEET is decreased compared to 2017 and 18 question papers. Perhaps NTA wants most of us in above 400! Don’t know. So, it can be possible that NEET 2021 can also be an easier one. But, you must give your best in your preparation and the exam also.

So as long as the paper becomes easier the cut off will rise accordingly.

 

3. Total number of medical seats in Tamilnadu 2021

As per 2020 total MBBS and BDS seats in Tamilnadu is 7854 (apart from deemed universities). Government and Semi-Government seats are divided into 85% and 15% as state and central reservations.

  • MBBS seats in Government Medical colleges – 3300 (2784 + 516)
  • BDS seats in Government Dental colleges – 100 (85 + 15)
  • MBBS seats in Semi-Government Medical colleges – 350 (247 + 103)
  • BDS seats in Semi-Government Medical colleges – 94 (80 + 14)

Private medical colleges depend upon the minority and specific reservation is given to both Government and Management quota accordingly.

  • MBBS seats in Private Medical colleges – 2250 (1290 + 960)
  • BDS seats in Private Medical colleges – 1,760 (1045 + 715) approx.

We already knew a thing is roaming here and there between NEET aspirants that 16 new government medical colleges will be opened in 2021 before the counseling. The fact is that construction work for these 16 medical colleges is still going on and having a lag due to these COVID-19 pandemics. NMC didn’t visit any of these colleges yet for approval. And also from Tamilnadu Medical Council, there is no single announcement about these colleges. So as far now the total seats remain the same as 2020.

 

4. Will neet 2021 be postponed?

Why I am considering this postponing as a factor means, whether you believe or not most of the medical aspirants utilize the last year NEET postponement time and made a difference in Tamilnadu pass percentage and cut off marks.

As for now, there won’t be any change in NEET 2021 and it will be conducted on August 1. NMC is highly serious about this decision because if the NEET 2021 is postponed then it will conflict with NMC guidelines on MBBS admissions.

NMC already released a calendar for MBBS I, II, III, IV, Internship, and PG courses for the years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025.

As per NMC, If exams are postponed then it can lead to the non-availability of 80,000 doctors for the next 5 years. The 2020-21 session has been already delayed by 4 months. Looking at this, it seems that NEET 2021 shall not be delayed.

 

NEET 2020 cut off for Tamilnadu Government Medical colleges

 

Just for a sake of knowledge I have given the Cut off marks, Community rank, and General rank for each category last year. A drastic increase in cut off has been noticed last year comparing to the previous years.

S. No Category Cut off Mark Community Rank General Rank

1

OC 599 1004

2

BC 563 1379 2115
3 BCM 535 132 3351

4

MBC 531 705 3569
5 SC 456 453 7740

6

SCA 391 83 11712
7 ST 358 26 13490

 

NEET cut off progression in Tamilnadu

 

So right we saw four factors that determine the NEET cut off 2021. Actually, all these four factors all alone determined the Cut off like in 2018, 2019, and 2020. But If you look close to the year to year cut off change, You will know the change is in a progression with

  • An initial slow increase (2017 to 2018)
  • Then a Rapid Increase (2018 to 2019)
  • Again a slow increase (2019 to 2020)

So this logistic regression gives you an idea that the cut off progression is a Sigmoid curve and it has an Initial lag phase then a rapid phase and again a lag phase.

The reason for the initial lag phase is because when the NEET first came to Tamilnadu in 2017, Most of us didn’t aware of how the exams will be, what will be the pattern, mark system, time period,.. etc

The reason for the rapid phase is because every Tamilnadu NEET aspirants starting to know the strategies and working system of the NEET exam. This made them plan accordingly and approach it effectively.

Reason for the end lag phase everyone will know that cut off is reaching the maximum mark of 720. As much as it becomes close to the maximum marks, cut off change for one year to next year will be in a decreasing manner.

 

NEET 2021 expected cut off for Tamilnadu Government Medical Colleges

 

S. No Category NEET cut off
1 OC 650 ~ 660
2 BC 635 ~ 645
3 BCM 595 ~ 605
4 MBC 590 ~ 600
5 SC 530 ~ 540
6 SCA 470 ~ 480
7 ST 440 ~ 450

 

So we here calculated the 2021 NEET cut off for Tamilnadu on the sigmoid manner of progression. Again I am stressing it out it’s just a statistical prediction, not the final cut off. From this, you can be aware of the cut off and make your plan accordingly.

Before entering into the cut off calculation you need to know the cut off for your category in each year (2017, 2018, 2019, 2020). Check it out here,

 

1. OC category – NEET 2021 Expected cut off

 

Y-axis

(Marks)

385 424 520 599 650 ~ 660

X-axis

(Year)

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

 

OC category - NEET 2021 Expected cut off

 

2. BC category – NEET 2021 Expected cut off

 

Y-axis

(Marks)

315 369 470 563 635 ~ 645

X-axis

(Year)

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

 

BC category - NEET 2021 Expected cut off

 

3. BCM category – NEET 2021 Expected cut off

 

X-axis

(Marks)

289 343 458 535 595 ~ 605

Y-axis

(Year)

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

 

BCM category - NEET 2021 Expected cut off

 

4. MBC category – NEET 2021 Expected cut off

 

X-axis

(Marks)

249 323 435 531 590 ~ 600

Y-axis

(Year)

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

 

MBC category - NEET 2021 Expected cut off

 

5. SC category – NEET 2021 Expected cut off

 

X-axis

(Marks)

211 264 360 456 530 ~ 540

Y-axis

(Year)

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

 

SC category - NEET 2021 Expected cut off

 

6. SCA category – NEET 2021 Expected cut off

 

X-axis

(Marks)

197 221 301 391 470 ~ 480

Y-axis

(Year)

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

 

SCA category - NEET 2021 Expected cut off

 

7. ST category – NEET 2021 Expected cut off

 

X-axis

(Marks)

168 199 267 358 440 ~ 450

Y-axis

(Year)

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

 

ST category - NEET 2021 Expected cut off

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