Expected NEET 2021 cut off in Tamilnadu – Statistical calculation

Expected-NEET-2021-cut-off-for-Tamilnadu

These days most of the NEET aspirants from Tamilnadu have a unique question in their mind is that What will be the NEET 2021 cut off for Tamilnadu? And also How far the cut off can rise this year?

So here we included all the possible things that affect the NEET 2021 cut off for Tamilnadu and calculated it with reliable sources. All the pieces of information and data are given below collected mainly from the TN Medical Selection website, previous year NEET Tamilnadu statistics and of course Quora.

Let’s jump into the Expected NEET 2021 cut off in Tamilnadu for government medical colleges.

I can create 3 stages of expected cutoffs for you so that you can predict how your marks will perform. Each of these three levels of cut-off calculations has its own precision and accuracy.

  • Low accuracy expected cut off (80%) – Using last year cut off, seat matrix and this year seat matrix
  • Moderate accuracy cut off (95%) – Using Times of India reports
  • Highly accurate cut off (99%) – Using the official Rank list
Also, keep in mind that all of my cut-off marks are the final marks you’ll expect in mop-up (3rd round counselling). So first-round counselling generally gets 10 marks higher than my estimate.

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Government quota seat matrix in Tamilnadu Government Medical Colleges

Government quota in Tamilnadu medical colleges has seats from contributions of Pure government medical colleges, Semi government medical colleges, and private medical colleges. Here we will see only government quota in pure government colleges.

 

S. NoCategory Seat matrix7.5% Horizontal reservation to Govt school students
1OC85570
2BC73360
3BCM978
4MBC55344
5SC41533
6SCA837
7ST282
Total seats2764224
2988

NEET 2020 cut off for Tamilnadu Government Medical colleges

Just for a sake of knowledge I have given the Cut off marks, Community rank, and General rank for each category last year. A drastic increase in cut off has been noticed last year compared to the previous years.

 

S. NoCategoryCut off Mark

1

OC599

2

BC563
3BCM532

4

MBC531
5SC456

6

SCA391
7ST358

 

Community RankGeneral Rank
999
13642089
1353500
6893521
4517698
8211694
2513490

Tamilnadu Government Medical Colleges seat matrix comparision

We need to compare 2020 and 2021 total government medical colleges seat matrices in order to find out our low accuracy cut off (80%). 

1. Government Medical College MBBS seats in 2020

Government Medical College seats under GQ in 2020 (7.5% seats excluded) – 2764

  • Seats that were given in the name of special category = 156
  • Total no of seats that were returned after special category counseling = 95
  • Total no of seats that were returned from All India Quota in 2020 = 132

Total actual seats that determined the last year cut off for Government medical college MBBS seats = 2764 – 156 + 95 + 132 = 2835

 

2. Government Medical College MBBS seats in 2021

Government Medical College seats under GQ in 2020 (7.5% seats excluded) – 2764

  • Seats that are going to be reserved for special category ∼ 156  (Approx)
  • Total no of seats that are going to be returned after special category counseling ∼ 95 (Approx)
  • Total no of seats that are going to be returned from All India Quota in 2021 ∼ 132  (Approx)

Total actual seats that determined the last year cut off for Government medical college MBBS seats = 2764 – 156 + 95 + 132 = 2835 (Approx) (So no change in total seats)

 

3. New 11 Government medical colleges

There is a flood of information on the internet that this year will see the addition of 11 new medical colleges (4 of which are almost ready). However, please do not get trapped here. Anyway, let’s see how the number of seat changes if they’re added.

I am seeing 2 probabilities here,

  • There is an 80% chance of the addition of 4 new Government medical colleges. This means about 493 seats will be added to the 2835 seats. Total seats will be 3328.
  • Or if you people are lucky enough then there will be an addition of all 11 new Government medical colleges (30% chance). This means about 1849 seats will be added to the 2835 seats. Total seats will be 4684.

Disclaimer:

493 and 1849 are the final product of seats after 7.5% reservation special category reserve and return and the AIQ return.

Things to consider before calculating the cut off mark

Before we go right into calculating the NEET cut off 2021 in Tamilnadu, there are a few factors to keep in mind. These factors will improve the calculation’s effectiveness and reliability.

Remember these factors will be useful only after the Times of India report or Rank list.

Until then cut off marks will be calculated based on the last year’s cut off and seat matrix in comparison with this year’s seat matrix.

1. Reservation in NEET 2021 Tamil Nadu

We already know that the private medical college seats would be the last to be filled from the government quota, while government and semi-government seats will be filled first. So, in order to determine the cut-off, we must first determine the total weight of seats in each category.

 

S. NoCommunity% reserve
1OC31%
2BC26.5%
3BCM3.5%
4MBC20%
5SC15%
6SCA3%
7ST1%

 

2. NEET Marks vs rank in Tamilnadu

For the academic year 2021, NEET marks vs rank in Tamilnadu is a crucial element that will affect the NEET cut off in Tamilnadu. We won’t know how much this year’s NEET marks vs rank differ from previous year’s until we get the rank list.

The Times Of India, on the other hand, will generally analyze the NEET marks vs. rank for each year. This will be as accurate as possible, as it will be reflected in the merit list exactly. I made this comment since TOI has proven its reliability over the past two years.

Because neither of them has been released yet, the reliability of this predicted cut off could be less.

 

MARK RANGE20202021
701 and above3Yet to be released
651 – 700146
601 – 650819
551 – 6001654
501 – 5502496
451 – 5002955
401 – 4503063
351 – 4002755
301 – 3502438
601 and above968
501 and above2496

 

3. Same mark density and probability

After NEET marks vs rank, the expected NEET cut off 2021 in Tamilnadu is mainly dependent on the same mark density. This is an analogy and can only be used if we know the TOI or rank list.

Expected NEET cut off 2021 calculation method

I am going to enlighten you with my entire calculating technique for each of my 3 cut-off calculations in order to help you understand them better. These will be covered in more detail further down.

Expected general rank and community rank

This is the easiest one of all time. We can figure this out using the cutoff from last year and the seat matrix from both last year and this year. This is simply a unitary method of calculation that we learned in elementary school. Cut off calculation will be explained in each category.

  • Expected NEET General rank = This year seat matrix × Last year General rank ⁄  Last year total matrix
  • Expected NEET Community rank = This year seat matrix × Last year Community rank ⁄  Last year total matrix

 

Low accuracy expected cut off (80%)

As the name says it’s an approximate value no one can’t define the cut off until either the Times of India report or Rank list release.

NEET expected cut off mark = mainly depends on the factors 3 factors (Rank list determining factors)

Factors determining the NEET cut off 2021

  • Total number of candidates appearing for NEET 2021
  • The difficulty level of NEET exam 2021
  • Students performance in the NEET exam

 

1. How many students appeared for the NEET 2021?

The total number of students who appeared from Tamilnadu will place a major role in determining Tamilnadu NEET cut off 2021. Although we all know the total no of candidates appearing for the NEET exam is ascending every year, last year it descended to a small fraction as there is a COVID-19 pandemic.

Likewise, this year also there is a small reduction in the total no of candidates applied for NEET 2021 from Tamilnadu compared to 2020.

However, the overall number of applicants from Tamil Nadu who appeared for NEET 2021 increased by around 20,000.

 

Year201720182019
Total candidates applied for NEET 2021 from Tamilnadu83000107288123078
Total Qualified candidates330004533659785
Qualification Percentage41%39.55%48.57%

 

Year20202021
Total candidates applied for NEET 2021 from Tamilnadu1,21,617 (Only 99,610 appeared)117502 (1,10,971 appeared)
Total Qualified candidates57,215Yet to be released
Qualification Percentage57.44%Yet to be released

 

2. Difficulty level of NEET 2021

In general, If we look at the last two years of NEET exams, the difficulty level of NEET is decreased compared to the 2017 and 2018 question papers. Perhaps NTA wants most of us in above 400! Don’t know. 

However, according to student feedback, the difficulty level of NEET 2021 was moderate to difficult, indicating that it was more difficult than the previous year’s NEET exam.

So as long as the paper becomes difficult the cut off will decrease accordingly.

 

3. Total number of medical seats in Tamilnadu 2021

As we clearly saw that the total government college seats are not yet be increased officially. Anyways let me put the whole seat matrix in shot for you.

As per 2020 total MBBS and BDS seats in Tamilnadu is 7854 (apart from deemed universities). Government and Semi-Government seats are divided into 85% and 15% as state and central reservations.

  • MBBS seats in Government Medical colleges – 3300 (2784 + 516)
  • BDS seats in Government Dental colleges – 100 (85 + 15)
  • MBBS seats in Semi-Government Medical colleges – 350 (247 + 103)
  • BDS seats in Semi-Government Medical colleges – 94 (80 + 14)

Private medical colleges depend upon the minority and specific reservation is given to both Government and Management quota accordingly.

  • MBBS seats in Private Medical colleges – 2350 (1396 + 954)
  • BDS seats in Private Medical colleges – 1,760 (1045 + 715) approx.

According to the above factors, records, and analysis of various sectors thus far, the cut-off increase for OC, BC, BCM, and MBC will be about 45 to 60 marks. And it may rise between 50 and 70 marks for SC, SCA, and ST. It’s only a speculative, statistical, and historical prediction.

Moderate accuracy expected cut off (95%)

Because the data we’ll be using comes from a news channel called Times of India, which generally provides a statistical NEET mark vs rank of each state even before the official rank list, we may expect moderate accuracy. Over the past two years, TOI has proven its reliability and accuracy.

The factors that we are going to use here are

  • TOI reports,
  • Expected general rank,
  • Last year merit list and
  • The same mark density and probability method

Step by step to determine your category expected cut off mark:

  1. First of all, know what is your community (Let’s say you are OC)
  2. Then find out the General rank and community rank by using the unitary method and all my data above (let’s say Expected GR = 2985)
  3. Find out the nearest range to the expected GR from TOI reports (Let’s take as per TOI total of 2697 students take over 550 marks)
  4. Now take the last year merit list
  5. Find General rank 2697 in last year merit list
  6. You will see a mark obviously less than 550 (Let’s say you are seeing 459 marks in GR 2697)
  7. Mark as 550 (The TOI mark) in that GR 2697 holding 459
  8. As we need to go to find the Expected GR 2965 We need to scroll down until you see the mark 458 in the last year merit list
  9. Let’s say we see the first 458 mark at GR 2707
  10. Mark there as 549
  11. Then go again search for the first 457 mark
  12. Let’s say when you reach GR 2985 you have the marked score of 543
  13. And there you go that’s your expected category cut off mark.
  14. If you have TOI report more than the expected GR then you need to scroll upwards (Means you will add marks instead of decreasing from the TOI mark)

Highly accurate expected cut off (99%)

We may expect a highly accurate cut off because here the data we’ll be using is the official rank list.

The factors that we are going to use here are

  • Official rank list,
  • Expected general rank and
  • Expected community rank

Step by step to determine your category expected cut off mark:

  1. First of all, know what is your community (Let’s say you are OC)
  2. Then find out the General rank and community rank by using the unitary method and all my data above (let’s say Expected GR = 2985)
  3. Find out the GR 2965 in the official rank list
  4. And there you go that’s your expected category cut off mark
  5. You can even actually use the expected community rank and cross-check with the same community rank in the official rank list.

NEET cut off progression in Tamilnadu

So right we saw four factors that determine the NEET cut off 2021. Actually, all these 3 factors all alone determined the Cut off like in 2018, 2019, and 2020. But If you look close to the year to year cut off change, You will know the change is in a progression with

  • An initial slow increase (2017 to 2018)
  • Then a Rapid Increase (2018 to 2019)
  • Again a slow increase (2019 to 2020)

So this logistic regression gives you an idea that the cut off progression is a Sigmoid curve and it has an Initial lag phase then a rapid phase and again a lag phase.

The reason for the initial lag phase is because when the NEET first came to Tamilnadu in 2017, Most of us didn’t aware of how the exams will be, what will be the pattern, mark system, time period,.. etc

The reason for the rapid phase is because every Tamilnadu NEET aspirant starting to know the strategies and working system of the NEET exam. This made them plan accordingly and approach it effectively.

Reason for the end lag phase everyone will know that cut off is reaching the maximum mark of 720. As much as it becomes close to the maximum marks, cut off change for one year to next year will be in a decreasing manner.

Expected NEET cut off 2021 calculation method

As of now, we don’t have the official rank list or the Time of India report, So we have to rely on the low accuracy cut off calculation (80%). Let’s see in the order of expected general rank, community rank, and cut off mark.

 

Expected General rank for each category

On each side of OC, BC, BCM, and MBC, you can add 20 to 30 ranks.

You can add 200 to 300 on each side for SC, SCA, and ST.

 

S. NoCategoryGRGR with 4 collegesGR with 11 colleges
1OC999∼ 1173∼ 1651
2BC2089∼ 2452∼ 3451
3BCM3500∼ 4109∼ 5783
4MBC3521∼ 4133∼ 5817
5SC7698∼ 9037∼ 12719
6SCA11694∼ 13728∼ 19321
7ST13490∼ 15836∼ 22288

 

Expected Community rank for each category

These expected community ranks can be raised or lowered by 10 to 15 ranks on each side for BC, MBC, and SC.

For BCM and SCA, you can add 5 to 10 ranks less or more on each side.

For ST, you can add 5 ranks less or more on either side.

 

S. NoCategoryCRCR with 4 collegesCR with 11 colleges
1OC
2BC1364∼ 1601∼ 2254
3BCM135∼ 159∼ 223
4MBC689∼ 809∼ 1138
5SC451∼ 529∼ 745
6SCA82∼ 96∼ 136
7ST25∼ 29∼ 41

 

Expected cut off mark for each category

These prediction cut-off marks can be adjusted by 10 marks on each side.

 

S. NoCategoryCut offCut off with 4 collegesCut off with 11 colleges
1OC∼ 640∼ 625∼ 605
2BC∼ 610∼ 590∼ 570
3BCM∼ 590∼ 570∼ 535
4MBC∼ 585∼ 565∼ 530
5SC∼ 525∼ 505∼ 475
6SCA∼ 460∼ 440∼ 410
7ST∼ 445∼ 420∼ 380
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